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Red-Yellow alliance vs Duterte will massively fail

THE unholy alliance between the Communist Party with its rabble of front organizations and personalities and the stragglers of the Aquino Yellow Cult will massively be defeated in today’s elections, which are really a referendum on President Duterte’s administration.

My bet is that the Red-Yellow axis won’t get a single Senate seat.

Forget those clowns who stupidly called themselves Otso Diretso, a monumental PR disaster as the term was so easily ridiculed—e.g., Otso Inidiro, Otso sa Nitso, Hateful Eight. If they were not megalomaniacs, such really mediocre people like Hilbay, Gutoc, Macalintal and Alejano would not have given the slightest thought to running for the Senate. Their families should take them for psychiatric treatment.

The collapse of the Yellow Cult indeed is reflected in the fact that it couldn’t even field candidates of some stature, other than these weirdos.

The Red-Yellow axis’ epic fail will be highlighted in Benigno (“Bam”) Aquino 4th and Mar Roxas’ defeat, their names itself symbolic of the Yellow Cult.

According to the Pulse Asia polls, Roxas was in the 8th to 12th slot in its survey undertaken February 24-28, with 39.8 percent of respondents choosing him. The pollster’s latest poll, undertaken May 3-6 has him out of the Magic 12, ranked only 16th and 17th, with only 21 percent voting for him, a huge fall of 18.7 percentage points.

That means, assuming an 85 percent turnout of the 62 million registered voters, that Roxas in just two months’ time has lost about 10 million voters – a landslide rejection of one who thought he would be voted president three years ago.

Roxas’ steep fall is despite the fact that he has spent P462 million in print, broadcast, and social media advertising, the biggest spender so far. I would think his financiers, even his clan, would have given up at this time, leaving him with few warm bodies on the ground to watch his votes, and not enough money to buy off local political leaders. Could the Araneta clan afford the billions they lost in the 2016 elections and in this year’s?

Aquino has been doing better than Roxas and is in the Magic 12, with the Pulse Asia May poll showing that the number of people choosing him have slightly increased to 30.6 percent from 30.4 percent in February.

Aquino though is competing for the last slot with Francis Tolentino, believed to have a huge campaign kitty and is ahead of him only by 1.7 percent. Using the same assumption of an 85 percent turnout, that lead translates to only to 884,400 voters.

That lead would be easily be overcome by Tolentino, if the Iglesia ni Cristo delivers at least its 1 million votes, believed to be a solid bloc of votes. The arithmetic there is 1 million votes less for Aquino could mean 1 million for Tolentino – or a 2 million lead.

The INC has not endorsed a single senatorial candidate of the Red-Yellow alliance. The INC, I learned, particularly loathes Roxas, as its leaders were convinced that he was behind the serious threat to its leadership in 2015 when, except for its head Eduardo Manalo, they were threatened with arrest for some allegedly trumped-up charges by the leader’s estranged relatives. (See my August 15, 2015 column, “‘Reap the whirlwind:’ What’s behind the INC revolt?”)

In the 2016 elections, ten of the 12 endorsed by the INC won with Francis Tolentino and Martin Romualdez not making it. In the 2013 elections, also 10 didn’t win, with Jack Enrile and Richard Gordon losing.

In both elections though, the INC endorsed candidates from both opposing camps. In contrast, for the elections today, it is solidly against the Red-Yellow axis.

(The 12 endorsed by the INC are former Special Assistant to the President Christopher Lawrence “Bong” Go, former Philippine National Police (PNP) chief Ronald de l aRosa, reelectionist senators Sonny Angara and Cynthia Villar, former senator and current Rep. Pia Cayetano, former presidential adviser on political affairs Francis Tolentino, Ilocos governor Imee Marcos and former senators Jinggoy Estrada and Ramon Revilla, Jr.)

Roxas tumbles; Aquino will be kicked out by INC.

The elections today though is likely to be financially rewarding for the Reds. According to reports on the ground, the Yellows could mobilize only a few people. Their middle- and upper-class supporters detest mingling with the masses.

Even former President Aquino 3rd, his former Cabinet members, and political leaders are nowhere to be found in the campaign trail. Liberal Party stalwarts like Franklin Drilon, Francis Pangilinan, and Risa Hontiveros have been invisible in this contest.

The Yellows therefore had to rely heavily on, and therefore financed, the Communist Party’s network of NGOs and front organizations to campaign for its candidates. These leftist NGOs, as well as its party-list organizations, of course, have been adept in siphoning off funds for the NPA and the higher Communist Party organs.

For every P100 the Yellows gave them, I was told, probably only half were used in campaigning for the Yellow candidates and their rallies that they were shocked that only a few people were attending these, even in their final rally a few days ago.

Such mobilization of the Left though explains why the Red-Yellow senatorial candidates have fared well in polls in the universities, where the communists still have the most militant organizations.

Indeed, top communist demagogue Jose Ma. Sison appears to be earning his pay. In an interview with his favorite newspaper the Philippine Daily Inquirer, Sison has openly called on the Left to actively campaign against Duterte’s candidates. This is the first time he has done this.

History will mark the elections today as the burial of the once-mighty Yellow Cult, with the Reds trying to resurrect it, for the funds of it, and displaying their impotence as electoral machines.



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