Solid North, Solid South: Stronger than 2016

  • Reading time:10 mins read

DATA from the low key but highly reliable pollster Laylo Associates indicate that the Marcoses’ so-called Solid North (the Ilokano-speaking provinces) and the relatively new “Solid South” (the Dutertes’ Northern Mindanao and Davao provinces) are even more solid in delivering votes than in 2016.

According to the Laylo poll (undertaken end-November and with 3,000 respondents), 92 to 97 percent of the Ilocos, Cordillera and Cagayan Valley will be voting for Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. This is markedly bigger than the 65 percent to 75 percent of votes in these provinces that Marcos got in the 2016 vice presidential elections

These North and South regions will most likely deliver an avalanche of votes for both Marcos and his running mate, Sara Duterte-Carpio, to make the opposition candidate Leni Robredo the worst-performing candidate in our Republic’s history. At least according to the Laylo November poll, she would be getting only 12 percent of votes; even worse than Jose de Venecia’s 16 percent in 1998, the record holder as the biggest loser so far.

It would be the last nail on the coffin of this Yellow Plague that has afflicted us since 1986.

It could be even worse than 12 percent. With all polls confirming Bongbong to have a wide lead over Robredo, campaign financiers would be crazy to throw money at a loser. The funds trickling into Robredo’s coffers would even be reduced as her fundraisers skim off the contributions, as they see their candidate losing anyway, and they wouldn’t care if she finds out. Maybe Robredo herself would likely, realistically, stash away some of the contributions to ensure herself a comfortable retirement. Not too many potential contributors, I bet, will be returning Robredo’s calls.

Already, Robredo’s noisiest cheerleader Albert del Rosario, sources said, has vanished after he was given the results of the Social Weather Stations October poll which showed Marcos getting 47 percent of votes as against Robredo’s 18 percent. That nutty group who first endorsed Robredo as its candidate, 1Sambayan, can’t even meet as no one is willing to pick up the bill for the lunch. Sources claimed that Robredo frowned her frown when she was told that Maria Ressa declined her plea to contribute to her campaign funds from her P25-million Nobel cash prize.

What is surprising about Laylo’s poll is that even the National Capital Region — traditionally very much pro-opposition and where the Pink-dominated media has its dominion — will go for Marcos, with 61 percent of ivoters backing him. Only 12 percent in that region chose Robredo. She can count only on one single region — her home region Bicol, with 70 percent going for her. Even Western Visayas, the Liberal Party’s traditional turf, gives Marcos 36 percent of its vote, bigger than Robredo’s 27 percent.

If Marcos’ trajectory continues, he will be the second president elected by a majority of votes in our post-EDSA history. I would think that would be good to unite this country that the Yellows have divided.

Words of wisdom from Facebook

Despite its many serious flaws — its confirmation-bias algorithm among others — I’m still a believer in it since I encounter once in a while brilliant writing there from non-journalists, whose work is even better than by those who have been writing columns for years. Here’s one from Krizette Laureta Chu, who describes herself as the “CEO at Second Chances PH.”

Reasons the 2022 elections is the most important one for the opposition and why they’re going to give it their all (and why many — not all — Kakampinks can’t help but be toxic):

1. A Bongbong Marcos (BBM) win — not just a win but a sweep — will cement that Leni’s VP win was a fraud. Not only will she lose 2022, she will lose 2016, despite what the courts have said. History will be rewritten. This is very painful for the LP and their followers.

2. Opposition will be all but obliterated. In 2016, they lost the presidency but squeezed in the vice presidency, still ok because of the many party mates in Congress and Senate — after all they were admin candidates. 2019 they spectacularly lost all Senate seats and many of their party mates jumped ship to PDP-Laban. In 2019, LP became a shell of what it once was. In 2022 key LP players moved to Isko after they lost faith in Leni’s chairmanship and leadership. If they lose this election, on Leni’s watch, the once powerful LP crumbles to fine dust. The party that once was the most powerful, most holy, most righteous and most decent, will cease to exist.

Marcos return

3. Yes they want to block a Marcos return to the Palace — but many in the younger generation — even among the pro LP — do not appreciate the significance of the Marcoses stepping foot in Malacañang after being driven away in 1986. It is the older generation who never expected to live to see Imelda Marcos back in Malacañang who will be super heartbroken when the Marcoses return to the seat of power. Many of today’s oligarchs are a product and a beneficiary of the Aquinos, and they really do not know what a Marcos presidency will mean for their businesses. There are those who are running the show now who were once Marcos cronies who stabbed them in the back and now won’t know what to do when the Marcoses return to the Palace. Also: Imelda Marcos back in Malacañang is a nightmare for many.


4. Victors always get to write history. Watch as history gets rewritten with a Marcos in power. There will be small pockets of resistance but the Marcos name will be sanitized, to be replaced by the Aquino name which will now be villainized. Imagine 30 years of hard work to enshrine the Aquino name just for it to be completely reversed.

5. A BBM win will give the Marcoses a chance to do what Yellows hoped they would never, ever get the chance to do — write their redemption story. If he does good, the Marcoses will be redeemed. It’s a chance no Yellow wants to give them. A redemption arc is always the most dramatic part of any story because it makes the hero out of the villain.

6. A Marcos-Duterte win — a resounding Marcos-Duterte win — will make liars out of Maria Ressa and other “voices” of opposition on the world stage. Imagine a landslide vote. Any self-respecting journalist should wonder why, despite the negative publicity and news and the theatrics of Maria Ressa—the PH voted for the children of the two most vilified leaders. It invites a deeper look and scrutiny, and maybe it will finally reveal the truth to the world. Maria Ressa and other voices of dissent will fight, but with such overpowering support, will shrink into irrelevance. They will love the drama of being the “voice of opposition” but they won’t be able to keep it up.

7. When Leni and her Senate slate loses this 2022, there will be no strong opposition. A BBM presidency, a Duterte vice presidency, a pro-admin Senate… when you have all branches of government working together, progress would be easier to achieve. Progress = redemption.

Yes, Leni’s supporters will say this is about values and morality — it’s not. She is surrounded, supported and controlled by the same people who brought us the Aquino admin, and her Senate slate is composed of an alleged drug lord queen and a former vice president whose family has been charged with graft and corruption; whose son cannot run for office again because of corruption issues; a mutineer/soldier who has never seen active duty in his life…

What values are they talking about?

The fight isn’t really about values or morality because this is politics, hello.

[The elections of] 2022 is important to all sides because of the usual reasons, but also because both are intensely fighting to become the one who claims and occupies the right side of history.

Facebook: Rigoberto Tiglao

Twitter: @bobitiglao

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This Post Has 2 Comments

  1. Edge

    you nailed it!

  2. Dorina Rojas

    The Filipinos can no longer be fooled – they got away with the vice presidency “win” by a “silent night” strategy when everyone was “sleeping in heavenly peace” because we were so trusting and confident that this li’l old lady love will not tolerate cheating. But as written here, this is politics, not about morality or values. The Yellow Jaundiced Tartars validated that. Am I excited and cannot wait for May 2022 election results. I am sure there is going to be a slaughter, hello.

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